1of3
pathways robust under all 6 sensitivities
Same site, same year, same assumptions - stress-tested across carbon, feedstock, FX, regulatory, financing, and fuel-price.
West-coast refinery - 2026 FID - 30 kBPD
#1
HEFA SAF - brownfield retrofit
Existing hydrotreater - 14 mo to FID
Robust
6 / 6
#2
Solar PV + Li-ion - co-located
Tank-farm land - CAISO Cluster 15
Conditional
4 / 6
#3
Green H2 + NH3 export - greenfield
Port-dependent - 34 mo to FID
Fragile
2 / 6
Σ
Robustness across all 6 sensitivities
Ranked shortlist - not a vendor pitch
Result
A wins